CS2 / CSGO Case Odds & Drop Rates Guide (2026)
Complete guide to Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) and CS:GO case drop rates for all container types. Official Valve odds for weapon cases, plus verified community data for souvenir packages, sticker capsules, armory collections, and more. Updated with wear float distribution and simulator data.
Last updated: February 23, 2026
How CS2 Case Odds Became Public
For years, Counter-Strike case odds were a complete mystery. That changed in 2017 when China's Ministry of Culture required all games with loot boxes to publicly disclose drop rates. Valve complied by publishing the exact probabilities for CS:GO weapon cases through Perfect World, their Chinese publishing partner. These numbers — 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert, and 0.26% Knife/Gloves — were the first official confirmation of what the community had long suspected. The disclosed rates have remained unchanged from CS:GO through CS2, and have been independently verified through millions of community case openings.
Quick Answers: CS2 Case Odds
Knife/Glove chance:
0.26% (1 in 385 cases)
StatTrak chance:
10% of eligible items
Pity timer:
None — each opening is independent
Expected value:
Negative — the house always wins on average
Source: Official Valve disclosure (China, 2017). These odds apply to all CS2 weapon cases.
Weapon Case Drop Rates (Official)
Valve officially disclosed weapon case drop rates in 2017 following Chinese regulations. These probabilities apply to all CS2 weapon cases including the Kilowatt Case, Gallery Case, Revolution Case, and all classic cases.
Official CS2 Case Odds
| Rarity Tier | Drop Rate | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | ~1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | ~1 in 6 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | ~1 in 31 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | ~1 in 156 |
| Knife/Gloves (Gold) | 0.26% | ~1 in 385 |
Source: Official Valve disclosure (China, 2017). These odds are confirmed through extensive community testing.
Knife & Glove Odds: 0.26%
- Expected cases for 1 knife: ~385 cases
- At $2.49/key: ~$958.65 average spend per knife
- Important: Each opening is independent - opening 385 cases does NOT guarantee a knife
Souvenir Package Drop Rates
Souvenir packages from CS2 Major tournaments follow the "5x rule" - each rarity tier is approximately 5 times rarer than the previous tier. These odds are significantly different from weapon cases.
Souvenir Package Odds (5x Rule)
| Rarity Tier | Drop Rate | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Grade (White) | 80% | ~1 in 1.25 |
| Industrial Grade (Light Blue) | 16% | ~1 in 6 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 3.2% | ~1 in 31 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 0.64% | ~1 in 156 |
| Classified (Pink) | 0.128% | ~1 in 781 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.0256% | ~1 in 3,906 |
Source: Skinport analysis, community data. Covert souvenirs like the AWP Dragon Lore are approximately 25x rarer than Covert items from weapon cases.
Souvenir AWP Dragon Lore
~1 in 3,906
packages for Covert drop
Case vs Souvenir Covert
Cases: 0.64% (1 in 156)
Souvenirs: 0.026% (1 in 3,906)
Armory Pass Collection Drop Rates (2024)
The CS2 Armory system launched in October 2024 with skin collections, charms, and stickers. Armory skin collections (like Train 2025, Graphic Design, Overpass 2024) have 5 tiers (no Consumer Grade), making Covert items more common than 6-tier souvenirs but still rare.
Armory Skin Collection Odds (5-Tier)
| Rarity Tier | Drop Rate | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Grade (Light Blue) | 79.37% | ~1 in 1.26 |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 16.53% | ~1 in 6 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 3.3% | ~1 in 30 |
| Classified (Pink) | 0.66% | ~1 in 151 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.13% | ~1 in 769 |
Armory skin collections skip Consumer Grade, so odds are renormalized. Covert is ~1 in 769 (vs ~1 in 3,906 for 6-tier souvenirs). Source: Community analysis.
Armory Charm & Sticker Odds
Armory charms and stickers use the same odds as sticker capsules (4-tier system):
| Rarity Tier | Drop Rate | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| High Grade (Paper) | 80% | ~1 in 1.25 |
| Remarkable (Holo) | 16% | ~1 in 6 |
| Exotic (Foil) | 3.2% | ~1 in 31 |
| Extraordinary (Gold) | 0.64% | ~1 in 156 |
Armory Credit Costs
- Armory Pass: $16.99 for 40 credits
- Skin collections: 4 credits (~$1.70 per unlock)
- Charm collections: 3 credits (~$1.27 per unlock)
- Sticker collections: 1 credit (~$0.42 per unlock)
Genesis Terminal Drop Rates & Pricing
The Genesis Terminal is a unique CS2 container with a "negotiation" mechanic. Instead of paying a key to open a case, you buy the Terminal from the Steam Market and negotiate with an Arms Dealer who presents you with 5 sequential item offers at different prices. You can accept one offer or decline all of them.
How Genesis Terminal Works
- Buy a Genesis Terminal from the Steam Market (~$0.21)
- An Arms Dealer presents you with 5 item offers, one at a time
- Each offer shows an item at a specific price set by Valve
- You can accept one offer (pay the price, get the item) or decline to see the next
- If you decline all 5, the session ends and you get nothing
Terminal Item Drop Rates
Genesis Terminals use the same item drop rates as weapon cases. The items offered are rolled from the same probability table:
| Rarity Tier | Drop Rate | Same as Cases? |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | Yes |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | Yes |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | Yes |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | Yes |
| Knife/Gloves (Gold) | 0.26% | Yes |
The key difference is not the drop rates, but the pricing mechanic. You pay per-item instead of a flat key cost.
Terminal Pricing: Dynamic & Mostly Overpriced
Valve uses a dynamic demand-based pricing algorithm for Terminal offers. Unlike fixed key prices, Terminal offer prices change in real-time based on supply and demand:
- Popular items get more expensive as more players accept offers for them
- Skipped items gradually get cheaper as players decline them
- Most offers are overpriced— the vast majority of Terminal offers are priced above the item's Steam Market value
- Good deals are rare— occasionally you'll see an item priced below market value, but this is uncommon
Real Terminal Price Examples
Community-reported Terminal offer prices vs Steam Market values:
| Item | Market Value | Terminal Price | Deal? |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 Oligarch | ~$1,900 | $370 | Great deal |
| M4A4 Full Throttle | ~$500 | $1,587 | Overpriced 3x |
| AK-47 Oligarch (FN) | ~$1,900 | $7,209 | Overpriced 3.8x |
| P250 Epicenter | ~$0.50 | $0.89 | Overpriced 1.8x |
Source: Community reports from r/GlobalOffensive and CS2 forums. Prices fluctuate based on real-time demand.
Is Genesis Terminal Profitable?
No.Like all CS2 containers, Genesis Terminals have negative expected value. While the occasional below-market offer exists, Valve's dynamic pricing ensures that most offers are above market value. The rare good deals are not frequent enough to overcome the overall negative EV. Treat Terminal unsealing as entertainment, not an investment.
Sticker & Autograph Capsule Odds
Sticker capsules and autograph capsules from CS2 Majors use a 4-tier rarity system with the 5x rule.
Sticker Capsule Odds
| Rarity Tier | Drop Rate | Odds (1 in X) |
|---|---|---|
| High Grade (Paper) | 80% | ~1 in 1.25 |
| Remarkable (Holo/Glitter) | 16% | ~1 in 6 |
| Exotic (Foil) | 3.2% | ~1 in 31 |
| Extraordinary (Gold) | 0.64% | ~1 in 156 |
Source: Skinport analysis, CS2ROI empirical data. Gold stickers are approximately as rare as Covert items from weapon cases.
Patch, Graffiti & Pin Odds
Other container types have unique drop rate distributions based on CS2ROI empirical data.
Patch Capsule Odds
| Lower Tiers | 97.2% |
| Remarkable | 2% |
| Exotic | 0.8% |
No Extraordinary tier for patches
Graffiti Box Odds
| Lower Tiers | 96.26% |
| Remarkable | 2.67% |
| Exotic | 1.07% |
No Extraordinary tier for graffiti
Collectible Pins Capsule Odds
| Distinguished + Exceptional + High Grade | 92.68% |
| Remarkable | 5.33% |
| Exotic | 1.6% |
| Extraordinary | 0.32% |
Source: CS2ROI empirical data from Collectible Pins Capsule Series 3
StatTrak Probabilities
StatTrak versions track kills and have a 10% chance of being awarded when you receive an eligible item.
StatTrak: 10% Chance
- Applies to: Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, Covert, and Knives/Gloves from weapon cases
- Does NOT apply to: Souvenir items (souvenirs cannot be StatTrak)
- How it works:After the rarity tier is determined, there's a 10% chance it's StatTrak
- StatTrak Knife odds: 0.26% × 10% = 0.026% (1 in 3,850)
Wear Condition & Float Value Distribution
Every CS2 skin has a float value(also called "wear value") between 0 and 1 that determines its visual condition. Lower float = less wear. The float value is permanently assigned when the item drops and cannot be changed. Skins drop in different wear conditions based on empirically measured probabilities — the distribution is not uniform:
| Wear Condition | Float Range | Drop Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New (FN) | 0.00 - 0.07 | ~3% |
| Minimal Wear (MW) | 0.07 - 0.15 | ~24% |
| Field-Tested (FT) | 0.15 - 0.38 | ~33% |
| Well-Worn (WW) | 0.38 - 0.45 | ~24% |
| Battle-Scarred (BS) | 0.45 - 1.00 | ~16% |
Source: CSFloat empirical analysis. Not all skins are available in all wear conditions - the float value is constrained by each skin's min/max float range.
Factory New: The Rarest Wear
Only ~3% of skin drops are Factory New. Combined with the Covert rarity tier (0.64%), a Factory New Covert skin has roughly a 0.019% chance — about 1 in 5,200 case openings.
Paint Seed & Patterns
Each skin also gets a random paint seed(1-1000) that determines its pattern placement. Some seeds create rare patterns like Case Hardened "Blue Gems" or Fade percentages, which can multiply a skin's value many times over.
Quick Reference: Covert/Rare Item Odds
Knife from Case
1 in 385
0.26%
Covert from Case
1 in 156
0.64%
Covert from Souvenir
1 in 3,906
0.026%
Covert from Armory
1 in 769
0.13%
Gold Sticker
1 in 156
0.64%
StatTrak Knife
1 in 3,850
0.026%
Knife from Terminal
1 in 385
0.26% (same as cases)
Simulator Data: What the Numbers Look Like in Practice
Our CS2 case simulator at case.oki.gg uses the exact official Valve probabilities and updates item prices daily from major trading sites. Here's what the odds actually feel like when you open cases:
Expected Results Per 1,000 Case Openings
| Rarity | Expected Count | Reality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | ~799 | You'll see a LOT of blues |
| Restricted (Purple) | ~160 | Roughly 1 in 6 openings |
| Classified (Pink) | ~32 | Exciting but still usually a loss |
| Covert (Red) | ~6 | Lucky to see more than a handful |
| Knife/Gloves | ~2-3 | Could be 0, could be 5 — that's variance |
These are statistical expectations. Individual results vary wildly due to randomness — that's what makes case openings exciting (and dangerous for your wallet).
Is Opening CS2 Cases Worth It? (ROI Reality)
The short answer: no, case opening is not profitable. On average, you'll get back 50-85% of what you spend. The expected return depends heavily on which case you open — newer cases with expensive knives and coverts tend to have better (but still negative) ROI than older cases.
- Best ROI cases: Cases with the most expensive Covert skins and knife finishes relative to key cost. This changes as market prices shift daily.
- Worst ROI cases:Cases where even the Covert skins are cheap, meaning only a knife pull can save you — and that's a 0.26% chance.
- Test before you spend: Use our free simulator with daily-updated market prices to see expected returns for any case. Open 100+ cases and check your profit/loss — it's the best way to understand ROI before spending real money.
Try These Odds in Our Simulator
Our CS2 simulator uses these exact probabilities for an authentic experience without spending real money. Test your luck with:
Popular Cases
Armory Collections
Genesis Terminals
Important Notes About CS2 Odds
- Independence: Each opening is independent. Opening 385 cases does NOT guarantee a knife - you could open 1000 cases without one, or get two in a row.
- House Edge: The expected value of case openings is typically 50-85% of the cost, meaning the house (Valve) profits on average.
- Container Type Matters: Souvenir packages (6-tier) have ~25x lower Covert odds than cases. Armory collections (5-tier) have ~5x lower odds, landing between cases and souvenirs.
- 5x Rule:Most non-case containers follow the "5x rule" where each rarity tier is 5 times rarer than the previous.
- Practice First: Use this simulator to understand the odds before spending real money in CS2.
CS2 Case Odds FAQ
- What is the knife drop rate in CS2 cases?
- The knife and glove drop rate in CS2 weapon cases is 0.26%, which equals approximately 1 in 385 cases. This was officially disclosed by Valve in 2017.
- Is there a pity timer in CS2 cases?
- No, there is no pity timer or bad luck protection in CS2 cases. Each case opening is completely independent. Opening 385 cases does NOT guarantee a knife - you could open 1,000 cases without one, or get two in a row.
- What is the StatTrak drop chance?
- StatTrak items have a 10% chance of dropping when you receive an eligible item. This applies to Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, Covert, and Knives/Gloves from weapon cases. StatTrak Knife odds are 0.026% (1 in 3,850).
- What are the official CS2 case drop rates?
- Official CS2 weapon case drop rates (Valve 2017): Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%.
- Are souvenir package odds different from weapon cases?
- Yes, souvenir packages follow the "5x rule" where each tier is approximately 5 times rarer than the previous. Covert souvenirs have a 0.026% drop rate (1 in 3,906), which is about 25 times rarer than Covert items from weapon cases.
- What is the expected value of opening CS2 cases?
- The expected value of CS2 case openings is negative, typically 50-85% of the cost. This means the house (Valve) profits on average. Opening cases is not a profitable activity over time.
- How do Armory collection odds work?
- Armory skin collections use a 5-tier system (no Consumer Grade), with Covert odds of approximately 0.13% (1 in 769). This makes them rarer than weapon case Coverts but more common than souvenir Coverts.
- How do Genesis Terminal odds work in CS2?
- Genesis Terminals use the same item drop rates as weapon cases (79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert, 0.26% Knife/Gloves). The difference is that instead of paying a key, you negotiate with an Arms Dealer who offers you 5 items at dynamic prices. You can accept one offer or decline all.
- Is the Genesis Terminal profitable in CS2?
- No. Like all CS2 containers, Genesis Terminals have negative expected value. Valve uses dynamic demand-based pricing that adjusts in real-time — popular items get more expensive, skipped items get cheaper. The vast majority of Terminal offers are priced above market value. Occasional good deals exist but are rare and not enough to overcome the overall negative EV.
- Are CSGO and CS2 case odds the same?
- Yes. CS2 uses the exact same case odds that Valve disclosed for CS:GO in 2017. The drop rates (79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert, 0.26% Knife/Gloves) carried over unchanged from CS:GO to CS2. Cases from both eras use identical probabilities.
- What is the best CS2 case to open for profit?
- No CS2 case is consistently profitable — average return is 50-85% of cost. However, cases with expensive Covert skins and sought-after knife finishes tend to have better ROI. This changes daily with market prices. Use a case opening simulator with live prices to compare expected returns before spending real money.
Sources & References
- Weapon Case Odds: Official Valve disclosure (China, 2017)
- Souvenir/Collection Odds: Skinport analysis, community empirical data
- Sticker Capsule Odds: Skinport analysis, CS2ROI data
- Patch/Graffiti/Pin Odds: CS2ROI empirical data
- Wear Distribution: CSFloat empirical analysis
- Armory System: Community testing and analysis (October 2024)
- Genesis Terminal: Community reports, r/GlobalOffensive analysis
Related Resources
- Methodology — How our simulator works and where our data comes from
- Glossary — CS2 terms explained (float, StatTrak, Doppler, rarities)
- FAQ — Common questions about the simulator
Experience These Odds For Yourself
Test your luck with our free simulator using authentic CS2 drop rates - no real money required!
Open the Kilowatt Case