How Our CS2 Simulator Works
Transparency about our odds sources, price data, and simulation methodology
Last updated: February 17, 2026
What This Simulator Is
Case.oki.gg is a free entertainment simulator that replicates the Counter-Strike 2 case opening experience. It is designed to help users understand case opening mechanics and probabilities before spending real money in the game.
This simulator:
- • Awards virtual items only — no real CS2 skins
- • Has no connection to Steam or your CS2 account
- • Requires no deposit, payment, or account
- • Stores your inventory locally in your browser
Drop Rate Sources
Weapon Cases (Official)
Our weapon case drop rates come directly from Valve's official disclosure in 2017, when China required loot box odds transparency. These rates have been verified by extensive community testing across millions of case openings.
Source: Valve Corporation, disclosed to comply with Chinese regulations (2017)
Souvenir Packages & Capsules
Souvenir packages, sticker capsules, and other containers use the "5x rule" — each rarity tier is approximately 5 times rarer than the previous. This has been verified through community data analysis from sites like Skinport and CS2ROI.
Armory Collections
Armory collection odds are based on community testing and analysis since the Armory system launched in October 2024. The 5-tier structure (no Consumer Grade) results in renormalized probabilities.
Genesis Terminals
Genesis Terminal item drop rates use the same odds as weapon cases (79.92% Mil-Spec through 0.26% Knife/Gloves). The unique aspect is the pricing mechanic — Valve uses a dynamic demand-based algorithm to price each offer. Our simulator simulates offer pricingusing randomized markup factors, as Valve's exact pricing algorithm is server-side and not publicly available. A disclaimer is shown on each offer noting that prices are simulated.
Price Data
Item prices are aggregated from multiple third-party skin marketplaces — including all major CS2 skin trading platforms. We calculate a median price across all sources for each item and container, updated daily to ensure accuracy.
Important price disclaimers:
- • Prices are median estimates across multiple markets
- • Actual sale prices vary based on float, pattern, and market conditions
- • Trading fees reduce actual received value
- • Prices are for reference only — this simulator awards virtual items
What We Simulate
Accurately Simulated
- • Rarity tier probabilities
- • StatTrak chances (10%)
- • Knife/glove odds (0.26%)
- • Item pool contents per case
- • Doppler phase distribution
- • Gamma Doppler phases
- • Wear condition distribution
Approximated
- • Exact float values within ranges
- • Pattern seed distribution
- • Fade percentages
- • Case Hardened blue %
- • Terminal offer pricing (simulated)
These use randomized values within valid ranges
No Pity Timer
Just like real CS2 cases, our simulator has no pity timer or bad luck protection. Each case opening is completely independent. Opening 385 cases does NOT guarantee a knife — you could open 1,000 cases without one, or get two knives in a row.
This accurately reflects how CS2 case opening works and helps users understand the true nature of the probabilities involved.
Data Storage & Privacy
Your virtual inventory and preferences are stored locally in your browser using IndexedDB. We do not store your inventory data on our servers.
- What we store locally: Virtual inventory, opening history, user preferences
- What we collect: Basic analytics for site improvement (page views, feature usage)
- What we never collect: Personal information, Steam credentials, payment data
Update Frequency
- New cases & items: Added within days of CS2 release
- Price data: Updated daily from multiple third-party markets
- Drop rates: Based on official/verified data; updated if Valve changes odds
Related Resources
- Case Odds & Drop Rates — Detailed probability breakdowns for all container types
- Glossary — CS2 terms explained (float, StatTrak, Doppler, rarities)
- FAQ — Common questions about the simulator
Questions?
Check our FAQ for more answers, or explore our odds guide for detailed probability breakdowns.